It's a Two-Team Race for LeBron James in 2010

The Franchise

When LeBron James signed only a three-year contract extension in the summer of 2006 instead of the maximum five-year like the ones his 2003 draftmates Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony had agreed to, this exact scenario playing out right now is what LeBron had in mind. That scenario being the Knicks, the Nets, the Pistons, and virtually half the league clawing each others' faces off to steal him away from the Cavaliers when he can become a free agent in 2010.

'Melo, come on! Everyone's doing it! Just extend three years!

First, though, I have to praise the financial merit of that decision. The tradition had been that a top-tier rookie would always sign for the maximum extension allowed for the longest time and the most money. That's what Anthony did. The 2003 rookie contracts expired in 2007, and he signed a five-year extension with Denver for the maximum salary that would pay him 25% of the salary cap until 2012. Bosh and Wade originally had agreed upon the same thing with their respective teams. LeBron held out though, because some brilliant mind must have gotten through to him and told him that was a conservative choice that left money on the table. In 2010, James, Wade, and Bosh will have completed their seventh years of NBA service, making them eligible for new max contracts worth up to 30% of the salary cap. With the salary cap projecting to be quite a bit over $60 million for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, that means James's new contract would be worth over $6 million more than Anthony's old one over those two years. Of course, putting two years on the line is risky in case the player gets injured or turns out not to be worth that kind of money, but this is LeBron James we're talking about here. His deal was so clever that Wade and Bosh immediately renegotiated their extensions to three years as well (Anthony, as usual, wasn't on the ball).

Of course, the big news to NBA teams that summer is that LeBron James will also have a player option in 2010 to become an unrestricted free agent. Joining him will be the other titans of the 2003 draft, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. This news is so seismic that it has completely overshadowed the fact that an army of other NBA All-Stars like Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Manu Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Yao Ming, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, and Michael Redd could also be on the market.

Yet the big fish in this ocean is definitely LeBron, making him the biggest free agent prize since Shaquille O'Neal ditched Orlando for L.A. twelve years ago. There are a ton of teams who could end up with enough cap space to sign LeBron in 2010 (Chinese marketing fans: imagine if Houston let T-Mac go and signed both LeBron and Yao), but four teams this year alone have already made big moves to get him. Two of them, however, have very little chance. The other two are guaranteed to have LeBron in one of their uniforms when his new contract kicks off.

-- FORGET ABOUT IT --

The New Jersey Nets

Cap Space-Clearing Moves: Traded Jason Kidd and change for Devin Harris and change. Traded Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons.

Why They Could Get LeBron: Bruce Ratner, the majority stakeholder of the Nets, wants to move the team to Brooklyn, the hometown of Jay-Z, a minority stakeholder of the Nets and a close friend of LeBron's. Brooklyn gives LeBron access to New York City, the biggest media market in the NBA. He has even said his favorite city in the world is New York, but his favorite borough is Brooklyn, not Manhattan.

Get used to this, New Jersey. It's going to keep happening.

Why They Won't Get LeBron: Because everything in the preceding paragraph is a big, steaming pile of crap. The Atlantic Yards project is so mired in legal problems that it'll be lucky to begin construction in 2010. The eminent domain case against Atlantic Yards, filed by the residents of Brooklyn, won't reach a decision until March 2009, at which point the petitioners will of course appeal and drag out the process even more months. Moreover, Bruce Ratner is a real estate mogul, not a sports owner. He cares a lot more about making sure his $4 billion real estate project is completed than he does about putting LeBron in a Brooklyn Nets uniform. In fact, he has been trying to sell the Nets for the past year due to the mountain of financial losses the team takes every year.

Why do they lose so much money? Because the Nets suck. Devin Harris looks like a future All-Star, but Vince Carter is done, Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez look like quality rotation guys at best, and the rest of the team is flat-out terrible. A lot of their future could depend on which guys General Manager Rod Thorn can bring in for Vince Carter, but, unlike the other three teams on this list, they only have enough cap space right now to sign just one max free agent in 2010.

Michael Redd: "Just don't ask me to play any defense."

And Jay-Z? How many times has he been at Madison Square Garden for the Knicks this year? He probably has season tickets. Now when was the last time you saw Jay-Z at the Izod Center watching the Nets? 2006? 2005? The New Jersey Nets are not moving to Brooklyn. If anywhere, they're much more likely to move into the Prudential Center with the Devils in Newark. Even if Ratner does keep them, they're not going to have an arena ready until 2012. If Jay-Z won't go into Jersey to watch his own team, why would LeBron waste two years in the swamp?

Here you go, New Jersey. This is Michael Redd's phone number. Good luck.

The Detroit Pistons

Cap-Space Clearing Move: Traded Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess for Allen Iverson.

Why They Could Get LeBron: With Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace both coming off the books after this year, Detroit will have enough salary cap space to sign two max free agents. Imagine LeBron with Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, or Amare Stoudemire. After playing together for Team USA the past few years, you know those guys are dying to play with each other in the NBA. Plus, Detroit already has a strong core in place with veterans Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton and promising young guys like Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson.

Why They Won't Get LeBron: This is a completely lateral move. Detroit and Cleveland are both in mid-level, slumping markets. On paper, Detroit without A.I. and 'Sheed looks a lot better than Cleveland without LeBron, but the players in Cleveland have a synergy with LeBron now after playing with him for so many years, and they know they can be successful with an offense focused around him. Detroit hasn't had an offense focused around a single attack since Isiah Thomas left town and will struggle for a while getting all the pieces to fit together around a giant new piece.

Get used to this, Detroit. It's going to keep happening, too.

More importantly, GM Joe Dumars knows this. He's a smart guy. He knows it's not likely he'll get LeBron in 2010. Unlike the other teams, he's actually getting all his cap space next year. Is he just going to stand pat, lose Iverson and Wallace, and trudge through a potential 30-52 season for a long shot at getting LeBron? No, he'll probably make a big play in the 2009 free agent pool and maybe target a guy like Bosh or Stoudemire in 2010 if he still has any space left.

-- THE PLAYERS --

The Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap-Space Clearing Moves: Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Cedric Simmons, and Shannon Brown for Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Traded Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble for Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak.

Why They Could Keep LeBron: It's his hometown. Let's start with that. LeBron growing up in Akron, OH, about 30 minutes south of Cleveland, is a far stronger bond than he has with Jay-Z or the New York Yankees (Guess who else grew up in the 330? This guy!). New York embraces him hard now because it wants him, but Ohio is home no matter where he goes. If he leaves Cleveland, the community will still love him even if the fans don't. If he doesn't pick New York, you think they'll feel the same way? No, they'll turn on him faster than you can say, "Stephon Marbury."

It's not just a sentimental choice, though. In the past, the Cavs have always been much-maligned for not having the right pieces around LeBron. In particular, Mike Brown has been criticized as having the least original offensive playbook in the league. I saw it. It was a single sheet of paper, and all it said was "Isolation: LeBron James." Though their defense was always top notch, opposing teams could beat them by suffocating James and letting the peanut gallery try to figure out what to do.

Entire Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Playbook: 2005-2007

Those days are over. 13 games into their season, the Cleveland Cavaliers lead the entire league in offensive efficiency at 110.6 while still staying in the top half of defensive teams with an 11th-place 101.2 defensive efficiency. Their margin of victory is 8.3 ppg, behind only the loaded L.A. Lakers at 13.5. But the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom holding down the front court with Kobe in the back. The Cavs just happen to finally have the right pieces around James.

First, signing Mo Williams over the summer has finally given the Cavs the second scoring option that they have never had in the past (let me repeat that, Larry Hughes: never). More than that though, their gigantic trade last season brought in Szczerbiak and West to join Boobie Gibson in spreading the floor with their shooting. It also brought Ben Wallace to compete with Anderson Varejao for the hustle and defense points down low. Meanwhile, Zydrunas Ilgauskas has always been a skilled, sweet-shooting center who worked very well with James. The ball is finally moving around now in Cleveland because they finally have guys who know what they're supposed to do with it (other than get it to LeBron). It's not a superstar crew like in L.A., but they're good enough that, when teamed with LeBron's standardly spectacular 30-8-8 gameplay, the Cavs are looking more likely to oust the Celtics as the team to meet the Lakers in the Finals. If LeBron wins a championship in Cleveland, the chance he leaves is almost nil.

The Cleveland Cavs are playing extremely well so far this year.

Then there is the cap space. Cleveland actually has enough players coming off the cap next year and in 2010 to give James the max and sign one more max player. We could be looking at a triumvirate of James-Bosh-Williams or James-Stoudemire-Williams. That's a Big 3 that can compete with anybody. But...

Why They Will Lose LeBron: The problem with the previous two paragraphs is that they are mutually exclusive reasons. Namely, the only way Cleveland gets the cap space it needs to sign another max player is by losing all those players that are making the team work so well right now. Even if they don't and keep the current line-up, Ben Wallace is 34, Szczerbiak is 33, and Big Z is 33. Who is Cleveland going to get to replace those guys while still trying to re-sign younger guys like Varejao and West?

Normally, with a meal ticket like LeBron on board, it shouldn't be too difficult to find the pieces to build around him. Yet, out of the four GMs running the teams on this list, Danny Ferry has been, by far, the most incompetent. His first moves on the job were to throw huge money at Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones, all of whom tanked and are no longer with the team. He lucked out in that the disparate pieces he put together to get cap space just happen to be gelling.

Danny Ferry: "Durrr..."

Yet he is not the person who made the critical mistake. That would go to former GM Jim Paxson. When you have a young phenom like LeBron, you build a dynasty around him through the draft. There was a very critical draft in 1987, when the Chicago Bulls had Michael Jordan but were still bad enough to get high draft picks. The Bulls owned the 8th pick and had their own 10th. With those two picks, they ended up with Scottie Pippen (via trade) and Horace Grant, both critical pieces to the start of the Bulls' title run. The Cavs had a draft like that, in 2004, and Paxson picked Luke Jackson. Well, Luke Jackson is no longer in the NBA. A few other people chosen after him, like Andris Biedrins, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, and Kevin Martin, still are and seem to be doing pretty well. Of course, Jackson was just the latest in a long string of Paxson's bad high first-round picks that included Dajuan Wagner, DeSagana Diop, Chris Mihm, and Trajan Langdon (to his credit, Paxson did also pick Andre Miller and stole Carlos Boozer in the second round, though he did also get bamboozled by Boozer and lost him to Utah).

With James now the best player in the league, the Cavs are way too good to ever get a high draft pick again in his prime, unless James suffers some debilitating, season-ending injury or they're able to pry one away from another lowly team. With Danny Ferry in the front office, I just have zero confidence in this management. Which just leaves one last team.

The New York Knicks

Cap-Space Clearing Moves: Traded Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington. Traded Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins for Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley.

Why They Will Get LeBron: Anyone who says New York is the mecca of basketball is living in 1970. On all levels of basketball, from the playgrounds to high school to college to the NBA, New York has lost the title. But what New York is is the media capital of the world. Taking up residence nowhere else on this planet would gain LeBron more exposure than in Madison Square Garden.

LeBron is coming.

On the basketball side of the story, they actually have a pretty weak team. For all the hype surrounding Wilson Chandler and David Lee, I can only imagine two or three future All-Star appearances between them at most. In particular, Chandler and Nate Robinson seem only to be wrecking havoc being in Mike D'Antoni's all-out offensive system. But now we're getting closer to where the talent is: in the management. D'Antoni took a horribly overpaid and underperforming team and turned them (at least before they lost Crawford and Randolph) into a playoff contender. Better than that, people want to come play for D'Antoni, including one other free agent who could turn the tide in 2010.

Just like Cleveland and Detroit, New York cleared enough salary to be able to sign two max free agents in 2010. They could also get James + Bosh, James + Wade, James + Stoudemire, etc. But having D'Antoni on the bench must make New York the front-runner for getting at least one other free agent: Steve Nash. Nash had the pinnacle of his career in D'Antoni's system, and he'd relish the chance to play in that system again. Not only that, he makes his summer home in New York and could also use all that media exposure to promote all the philanthropic efforts in which he's involved. Putting Nash on the same team as LeBron would make LeBron, for the first time in his life outside USA basketball, not the best playmaker on the team and not the ideal starter for the offense. That would allow him to concentrate completely on what he is the best in basketball at: finishing. Add to that another player like Bosh or Wade, and it's like he's back in Beijing.

Yes, Nash will be 36 by then, but he has kept himself in amazing shape and should still be very effective. Also, with Knicks owner James Dolan, Nash won't have the same problem he did with Suns owner Robert Sarver, who drafted three point guards who could've been excellent understudies to Nash (including Robinson) but was way too big a cheapskate to hold onto any of them. Of course, it also helps that the Isiah Thomas regime has been replaced with Donnie Walsh, a legendarily genius GM. The Indiana Pacers were a mess when Walsh finally handed the keys over to Larry Bird, but people forget they were a big favorite to win it all in 2004-05 and were crushing the defending champion Pistons at home the night Ron Artest ran into the stands and destroyed the franchise.

D'Antoni and Walsh. Yes, you can bank your franchise on these guys.

Walsh is proving he's still got the touch in New York, deftly handling the absolute disaster that Thomas left behind and shedding enough previously thought-to-be unmanagable contracts in just a few months. New York has the opposite of what LeBron has in Cleveland. The Cavs are a team built to compete now but have incompetent management who can't plan for the future. Well the Knicks don't have the pieces to compete now, but they have some real pros in the front office who know exactly what they're doing. The Knicks have a future, and LeBron will be the crowning jewel of it.

Why They Wouldn't Get LeBron: Michael Jordan. Bill Russell. Tim Duncan. These are all franchise superstars who created dynasties for the teams that drafted them. There is no denying that there is an air of loyalty and dedication around those guys that isn't around someone like Shaq or Wilt Chamberlain, whose legacies are both tainted by a single word: "selfish" (also, "free-throw percentage"). LeBron knows that, even if he goes to New York and wins 10 titles, he'll be put on a different pedestal than Jordan, Russell, and Duncan.

But what LeBron needs to keep in mind is this: more important than Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, Duncan has R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich. More important than Scottie Pippen, Jordan had Jerry Krause and Phil Jackson. More important than any of the multitudes of Hall-of-Famers he played with, Russell had Red Auerbach. LeBron, do you think your legacy is safe in the hands of Danny Ferry and Mike Brown? Or do Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni sound like better names to have at the head of your organization?

Get used to this, New York.

It's still almost two years away, but I'll see you in New York, LBJ.

Happy St. Patty's Day: Saint Mary's Patrick Mills

Point Guard Derrick Rose was the number one draft pick this year and is making a strong case at Rookie of the Year by averaging 17/4/5 in a supposedly crowded Chicago backcourt. Behind him came point guards Russell Westbrook and Jerryd Bayless, who both dominated their respective summer leagues. Even D.J. Augustin has started to contribute while sharing the 1-spot with Raymond Felton. Yet next summer's draft could be the most stacked class of point guards since 2005, when Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Felton went 3-4-5 and Monta Ellis and Louis Williams got snagged in the second round.

Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings

At the top of 2009's point guard mountain stand the Euroleaguers, Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings. The December 11 meeting of Rubio's DKV Joventut and Jenning's Virtus Roma should be epic, if only for the sheer number of NBA scouts who'll be present (what'll also be epic is the the dump I'll be taking into the paper bag I send my local Comcast office for not allowing me access to ESPN360 to watch the game). Yet Jennings is still struggling to make an impact in the nascent Italian League season, while Rubio hasn't played at all yet after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his wrist.

Meanwhile the NCAA season is tipping off here on the other side of the pond, and a whole new crop of point guards are setting out to make their cases for the NBA. One to keep an eye on is Patrick Mills, the lightning backfielder from Australia via Saint Mary's. He led Saint Mary's last year with 14.8 points and 3.5 assists, carrying the Gaels to the first round of the NCAA tournament. However, this summer in Beijing was when Mills really padded his resume, leading the Australian Olympic basketball team with 14.2 points in 23.5 minutes. Not only did he score efficiently (47% FG, 36% 3PT, 83% FT), he also took care of the ball, averaging only one turnover to two assists and two steals per game.

Mills cruising passed Chris Paul

Of course, when it comes to the Olympics, all NBA teams seem to see is how you do against Team USA, and this is where Patrick Mills shined. Ricky Rubio made defense his calling card this summer, but he was spanked over and over again by Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Well what those two did to Rubio, Mills did to them. In particular, Mills matched Paul, one of the NBA's quickest players, step for step. In the exhibition round, Mills scored 13 points while Paul, Williams, and Jason Kidd combined for only 5 total. The story wasn't much different in the medal round, as Mills scored 20 while USA's three point guards combined for 16. Granted, Mills was asked to carry his team's scoring load, while Kidd, Paul, and Williams were only asked to distribute the ball. Yet to score so efficiently against the top point guards in the NBA and not be outclassed defensively (ahem, Rubio) has to be impressive. If he can raise his game even higher this year and take Saint Mary's on another run in March, look for Patrick Mills's name to appear even more in June at the NBA draft.

Top Point Guards in the 2009 Draft from the Cheap Seats

1. Brandon Jennings, Virtus Roma - Explosive athlete with amazing court vision. I originally had my doubts about whether he was too showy to be effective, but if he buys into his role, playing second string QB in a team-first European environment, then he's the best on the table in my book.

2. Ricky Rubio, DKV Joventut - That wrist injury concerns me, but those Pistol Pete comparisons flat-out piss me off. Yes, he's a white guard who has that flop-mop haircut. Yes, he is a great ball-handler and genius passer. That's it. Pistol Pete was also phenomenal scorer. He was averaging 40 ppg in diapers. Rubio doesn't have that yet. He does have great size for his position at 6'4" and a reputation for being an aggressive defender, but only good-not-great athleticism. His skills and vision put him this high.

3. Patrick Mills, Saint Mary's - Lightning fast with an invisible first step, he also takes care of the ball, can stroke from distance, and keeps in front of his man on defense. However, unlike the two guys ahead of him, he lacks the court vision all great point guards have. He also needs to learn how to change gears like Jennings can and control the tempo of the game. Then again, Saint Mary's uptempo offense is built around him. I was also going to mention how Mills and Ty Lawson are only 5'11", but then Chris Paul gave me a dirty look and said, "So what?"

4. Jrue Holiday, UCLA - He's not a great ball-handler or passer, but he's athletic, versatile, and a good size for PG, so somebody's going to love him. He's also been spectacularly misspelling his first name for the past 18 years.

5. Ty Lawson, UNC - Super quick just like Mills, but with better court vision. Not as talented a scorer though, and, after three years in the national spotlight at UNC, teams have got to wonder how much upside is left.

6. Stephen Curry, Davidson - Apparently showed off some smooth point guard skills at the LeBron James Skills Academy, but if a team drafts Curry, it's going to be for his world-class shooting.

Boomer!

Kevin Durant: 2008-09 Most Improved Player

Last night, the sorry Milwaukee Bucks beat the even sorrier Oklahoma City Thunder 98-87. Kevin Durant, last year's Rookie of the Year, finished with 12 points (on 35.7% shooting), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 turnovers in 33 and a half minutes. For much of the first half, Durant ran around with 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 3 turnovers, and 3 fouls. On his own team, he was outplayed by Chris Wilcox and even rookie Russell Westbrook, who managed 13 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, along with a block and only 2 turnovers in less than 22 minutes.

After all this, I'm still declaring that Kevin Durant wins Most Improved Player this year. He is taking his game to a completely new level this year.

To understand, we have to take a look at what he did last year in his rookie season. Coming into 2007-08, I was very wary of Durant. He was vastly overhyped in my mind. In fantasy basketball drafts, he was easily going 3-4 rounds too early. I took one look at that rail-thin body, checked out the sorry state his team was in, considered the inferior D-I competition he faced to put up his 25 and 11 in college, and bluntly spout out "41% shooting and 4 turnovers per game." He certainly had the length and unquestionably the skill, but he lacked world-class speed and was far below average in strength. Rookies who have excellent shooting fundamentals but lack the athleticism to get to the rim and strength to post up always end up doing the same thing: take too many jumpshots. Also, being forced to play shooting guard and still being much weaker than most of them, I knew Durant wasn't going to come close to double-digit rebounds.

At the beginning of the season, he wasn't doing any better than I had predicted. By the All-Star break, he was barely shooting 40% and averaging a paltry 4 rpg (pathetic for a 6'9" guy) and 2 apg (though he was never a great passer). He didn't turn the ball over anywhere close to 4 times a game (only 2.8), but his 2 spg and 2 bpg from college halved to 1 and 1 in the pros.


Then something interesting happened after the All-Star break. He got better. It was actually quite subtle. He averaged slightly higher points, rebounds, assists, and turnovers, but those could all be attributed to the extra four minutes he was playing in each game. However, his field goal percentage shot up from .402 to .476. Quite simply, Durant wasn't chucking up jump shots anymore. From behind the 3-point line, where he never adjusted to the NBA distance, he went from shooting 3 three-pointers per game to 1. His more aggressive approach to scoring also showed in his taking and making almost one more free-throw per game. Midway through his rookie season, instead of hitting a wall, he determined his primary weakness--shot selection--and corrected it. Adam Morrison, are you paying attention here?

Kevin Durant Pre-All-Star Break vs. Post-All Star Break

	G	MP	FG%	3P%	FT%	3P	3PA	PTS	TRB	AST
Pre-Break	50	33.1	0.402	0.282	0.865	1.0	3.4	19.4	4.1	2.2
Post-Break	30	37.1	0.476	0.314	0.885	0.4	1.2	21.9	4.8	2.7

Overall, Kevin Durant finished with a decent 20 ppg on 43% shooting in 34 mpg and won the Rookie of the Year award. They're not spectacular numbers, but he was only a 19-year old rookie. Put him next to two other 19-yr old rookie combo forwards who were given the green light to score from day one, and Durant compares favorably.

Rookie Season Stats of Franchise Combo Forwards

	G	MP	FG%	3P%	FT%	PTS	TRB	AST	PER
LeBron James	79	39.5	0.417	0.290	0.754	20.9	5.5	5.9	18.3
Carmelo Anthony	82	36.5	0.426	0.322	0.777	21.0	6.1	2.8	17.6
Kevin Durant	80	34.6	0.430	0.288	0.873	20.3	4.4	2.4	15.8

If we focused on post-All-Star break splits, Durant looks even better. In fact, though almost all rookies hit the wall and get worse as the season progresses, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are two of the rare rookies who played all year and still actually got better in the second half. So no need to worry about that 12/3/2 in the opener. If his 95-lb body can hold up through this season, I'm guessing Durant will eventually have doubled that stat line and be averaging something closer to the 24/6/4 he did last April. Just as LeBron made the leap in Year 2, so will Kevin Durant.

C'mon Michael Redd, you can't defend me!

Can Argentina, Spain, or Lithuania Stop Team USA?

Nope.

Worthy of Being Called the Dream Team?

Thoughts on Team USA after their 119-82 destruction of Spain:

• Threeeeeeee! That was the big story of the first half. After shooting so poorly through their first three games, the U.S. destroyed Spain's zone with a 7 for 11 performance behind the arc in that half. That cooled down to 3 for 11 in the second (before Tayshaun Prince hit two in garbage time), so hopefully it wasn't just a 20 minute fluke. Another interesting point: none of those threes came from Michael Redd. Don't know what to think about that just yet.
  
  
• Our depth is phenomenal. The second team of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has been playing BETTER than Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. Wade has been spectacular offensively, scoring 16 in 19 minutes, but what surprises me is how much Bosh stepped up when Howard was out in this game and the last one against Greece. On one play, the U.S. was playing a three-guard line-up of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Bosh. With everyone else on the perimeter, Bosh still held down the paint by himself against two Spaniards with a block and a rebound. He didn't score well today, but he's made his presence felt on the boards and defense.
  
  
• The reason Wade and Bosh got so much run, though, was because Bryant and Howard were in so much foul trouble. As effective as Bosh and Carlos Boozer have been in their minutes, Howard is just flat-out unstoppable when he's on the court. He needs to be there during close games in the Medal Round.
  
  
• One of the reasons Howard needs to be there is to defend the giants like Pau Gasol, who manhandled Bosh when Bosh tried going man-to-man. Good thing Team USA's team defense has been so great. Did you see Wade flying out of nowhere to block Felipe Reye's shot? Their rotations look great. This is not the same team that couldn't figure out how to defend the pick-and-roll in 2006. Also, I could see the U.S. picking off a lot of balls and getting transition baskets, but I didn't realize their 28 forced turnovers was the second-highest ever for a U.S. Olympic team since the original 1992 Dream Team was taking the world's lunch money, bus ticket, and girlfriends, too.
  
  
• On the flip side, Ricky Rubio's vaunted defense looked slightly over-hyped as Chris Paul and Deron Williams beat him like a pinata time and time again. Still, watching Rubio go up against Brandon Jennings next year should be awesome.
  
  
• This win was promising, and with only Germany left, the U.S. is likely to sweep its pool. Yet being undefeated in Pool Play means nothing. Spain and Lithuania were the only 5-0 teams after Pool Play in Athens, and neither got a medal. In fact, Spain was knocked out by the 2004 U.S. team, a.k.a. the Dysfunctional Team.
  
  
• Only thing that tainted this victory? A text message from my bro, Mark. I gave him the score after the first quarter and asked if he was watching. His reply: "no. im not watching the game. but im watching my girlfriend. she so pretty!" What man says that to another man? I hope he finds where he lost his manhood soon, because I can't talk to this sackless blob.
  

Great win, but everything gets harder in the Medal Round. Lithuania looks fantastic, and a veteran team like Argentina can't be counted out. The biggest disappointment there has got to be European champion Russia, who has completely collapsed here and likely won't make the Medal Round at all. Team USA, meanwhile, looks like it's regaining its previous Dream Team stature.

I think I know why Spain had trouble seeing this beating coming.

Hey, Where Do You Want Me to Put This Ron Artest?

Ron Artest to Houston. No NBA summer is complete without the Rockets picking up yet another forward who is supposed to put them into title contention.

In the summer of 2005, the Houston Rockets picked up Stromile Swift from the Memphis Grizzlies, and, due to the immense amount of methamphetamine I must have been shooting into my eyeballs at the time, I thought that they finally had the athletic forward who can take the pressure off Yao Ming on the block and push them to the NBA Finals. Of course, that year Yao and Tracy McGrady combined to miss 3000 games total, and the Rockets missed the playoffs altogether. The next year, they brought in another forward, Shane Battier, for the lump Swift and future perennial-All-Star-on-a-bad-team Rudy Gay. It seemed like a lot to give up for a role player/character guy, but they seemed to adapt pretty well before yet another disappointing first round playoff knockout for Yao and T-Mac. Then last year, they brought in yet another forward, Luis Scola, strengthened the guard position, and looked like title contenders again before Yao ended his season for a Chinese government-mandated Your-Parents-Will-Mysteriously-Disappear-If-You-Miss-The-Olympics vacation.

That brings us to this year and Ron “Punchy” Artest. Don’t get me wrong, I love Ron Artest. I think he should be on the USA Olympic team, and not just because he would have the most potential since Mike Tyson to cause an international incident. Artest is renowned for his perimeter defense, but his powerful body also makes him sneakily good at posting up on offense. That’s great. He also likes to dribble the nubs off the basketball. And, despite his post skills, he loves chucking up jump shots. Unfortunately, Tracy McGrady already has that skill set covered for the Rockets, and that’s not even mentioning Steve Francis. Plus, unlike Battier and Scola, Artest's desire to hold and caress the ball means even fewer touches for Yao, the focal point through which all their plays should run.

On the defensive end, Shane Battier is the rare breed of player who is classy enough to come off the bench behind Artest when Battier would normally start for most teams in this league, which incredibly gives the Rockets an elite, veteran perimeter defender on both the first and second teams. However, according to John Hollinger's "spies" (probably the same guy who sent military secrets to China), the Rockets are planning to keep Battier at the 3 and play Artest at the 4. What the funk? Are they seriously expecting Ron Artest to be guarding guys like Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Chris Bosh? (No, Yao, put your hand down.) And where does that leave last year's breakouts, Luis Scola and Carl Landry, in the competition for minutes?

Then again, Rick Adelman earns his paycheck on getting players to move the ball around on offense, and Artest is supposedly an underrated playmaker (mysteriously skills always appear when sportswriters need to justify trades, i.e. Artest’s hidden play making skills or Kwame Brown’s hidden basketball playing skills). If they work as well together here as they did in Sacramento (Artest dished 1 apg above his career average during his tenure with Adelman; one whole assist!!), then they are contenders after all. Regardless, Artest's salary has always been a bargain with his level of talent countered by his level of crazy, and, with only one year left on contract, he's well worth the risk. Plus, Yao is definitely missing time after rushing back early from a foot injury to play in the Olympics, and T-Mac is definitely missing time because he just likes doing that kind of stuff. Let's face it, nobody plans their defense around Rafer Alston. When that happens, the Rockets will be thankful that other teams will still have to worry about Punchy Artest.

Score for Chinese Names

Watching the NBA Draft on ESPN -- Both Ric Bucher and Stuart Scott just pronounced Yi Jianlian's name as, phonetically, "EE GIN LIN." That's how you really pronounce it!! I don't know at what point they stopped butchering it as "EE GEE-ON LEE-ON," but hopefully those days are over.

Oh yeah, and apparently he was traded to New Jersey with Bobby Simmons for Richard Jefferson. Whatever. Excuse me if I'm not terribly excited for the second legitimate Chinese NBA player to go to a team desperately positioning itself as a throne for LeBron James to park his ass in 2010.

And can someone please tell me why O.J. Mayo dressed like George Washington Carver?

The Portland Trailblazers: Your 2011-12 NBA Champions

Stop crying L.A. fans, the Lakers have a better chance than any team to come back and win the title next year.

Sorry Kobe. Maybe next year.

Despite embarrassing themselves to the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals, life isn’t over for the Los Angeles Kobe Bryant and Friends. L.A. is a year early anyway. Was Pau Gasol the missing piece that made them title contenders? For sure, but that puzzle also had a giant piece named Andrew Bynum who happened to be missing for the entire end of the season. Gasol is a seasoned scorer and an incredible athlete in his own right, but he doesn’t bring the strength and mean streak that Bynum does (ask Shaq). Bynum is the cornerstone of that low-post defense, and Boston would have found the paint to be a far more unfriendly place if they ran into two long, athletic 7-footers there. When Bynum returns from surgery next year and joins Gasol on the frontline (assuming this roster stays together -- I'm looking at you, Kobe) and the Lakers move Lamar Odom for a player with a pair of rocks in his sack (rocks > talent), they will be competing for the championship for years.

But they will not be alone.

Another team also started making noise a year early. Last October, the Portland Trailblazers were expected to be one of if not the worst team in the league. They had just traded away Zach Randolph, their leading scorer and rebounder, and banked their entire future on #1 draft pick Greg Oden, the center of the future. Then they watched Oden shut down for the entire season following microfracture knee surgery. It didn’t leave them with much. Their players were, on average, the youngest team in the league by far at 24.06 years, 1.29 years younger than 29th youngest Seattle (0.55 years separates #29 from #22). The players also had the least amount of experience at 2.87 years, 0.60 years less than 29th least experienced Chicago (0.46 years separates #29 from #20). This was a team that didn't have a front court player who cracked double-digits in scoring the year before. Their one lone bright spot for the season was Brandon Roy, a promising but hardly explosive sophomore combo guard who missed 25 games his rookie season to injuries. Well, at least if they’re terrible, they’ll get another high draft pick, right?

BlazerNation: "Thanks for holding down the fort, guys."

A 13-game win streak, a run at the playoffs in the most competitive conference in NBA history, a 41-41 final record, and one All-Star later, the lesson to be learned is never doubt coach Nate McMillan. This is the same Nate McMillan who took the 2004-05 Seattle Supersonics, another team that was supposed to be one of if not the worst in the league that year, to 50-32 and pushed the eventual NBA champs San Antonio to more games than any other team in the Western Conference playoffs. If any coach has proven he can get much more out of a team than anyone expects, it's Nate McMillan (and if any coach has proven he can get much less, it’s Larry Brown -- good luck, Charlotte!).

This man can coach.

Yet it goes further than just the final record. McMillan achieved that while still giving his young players heavy minutes and developing their talents. Brandon Roy played his way into the All-Star game. LaMarcus Aldridge proved to be a force in the paint. Travis Outlaw started realizing his enormous athletic potential and became a game-changing sixth man. Martell Webster and James Jones found their roles and spread the floor. Even Channing Frye started re-discovering the potential he had in New York before Larry Brown stomped out his confidence, averaging 16 and 10 in the last five games of the season (admittedly against the JV players most teams trot out at that time of the year). The only real disappointment was that neither Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, nor Sergio Rodriguez could play well enough to claim the starting point guard role. Yet looking outside the light of the rest of the team, one could argue that they're just developing at a normal pace. There's still a lot of potential there, particularly with the one they call "Spanish Chocolate" (… that's a dumb name).

	Greg Oden with a monster dunk.

Of course, the big addition this year is the addition they were hoping for last year: Greg Oden, the 7-foot center with hops like he's got springs in his legs. Like with Bynum, Oden's very presence will mean the post defense is locked down. Unlike Bynum, Oden has the athleticism of an Olympic high-jumper (also unlike babyface Bynum, Oden is 1000 years old). When Oden returns to join Aldridge in the front court, the Trailblazers will be adding a young Patrick Ewing to a young Pau Gasol.

Everyone already knows about the impact Oden will bring to the team, but another signing may also prove to be a critical piece of the puzzle. Earlier this month, Rudy Fernandez announced he would leave his Spanish ACB League team to join the Trailblazers (which acquired him by buying his draft rights from Phoenix for straight cash, much like how the championship Celtics bought the drafts rights to their starting PG Rajon Rondo from Phoenix -- good work, Phoenix!). The Spanish ACB League is widely considered to be the second best basketball league in the world (right behind the And1 Streetball Tour of course) and Rudy Fernandez is arguably the best player in the ACB league if not all of Europe itself. This league’s alumni include NBA pros such as Arvydas Sabonis, Pau Gasol, Andres Nocioni, and Luis Scola.

The talented and hairy Rudy Fernandez.

Last season, Fernandez led the ACB in points with 21.2 and steals with 2.2 while also dropping in 4.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 28 min a game for second-place DKV Joventut Badalona. Imagine a player of that caliber joining Portland. They can play a backcourt of Fernandez and Roy, two 6’6” combo guards who both can dribble, pass, and score. Or picture Spanish Chocolate running the break with the two of them on the wings. Or Fernandez coming off the bench behind Roy, and the Trailblazers not missing a beat on offense like they did last year when a reliable but one-dimensional shooter like Martell Webster or James Jones took over. Then consider that Rudy Fernandez doesn’t even break the Trailblazer’s league-low average age at 23 years old.

So Lakers fans, don’t worry. With all due respect to the Boston Celtics, the Utah Jazz, the New Orleans Hornets, and the San Antonio Geriatrics, the championship is yours to lose next year. And the year after that. And probably the year after that. But, at some point, that young team in the upper Northwest is going to grow up, and you’re going to be the one getting your lunch money taken away.

Chicago, don't draft either Rose or Beasley. Draft both.

*Edit - June 5, 6:33 PM* Thanks to Henry Abbot for reminding me that waiving a player doesn't take them off the salary cap. The NBA, where guaranteed contracts happen (cut to image of Jerome James swimming in money butt-naked ala Demi Moore in "Indecent Proposal").

(Actually, if anyone can get me a picture of that, I will give that person a shiny nickel.)

Ever since General Manager John Paxson sold his soul to David Stern, and the Chicago Bulls beat the 98.3% odds of winning the draft lottery, the Internet has been rife with arguments over whom Chicago should take with the first pick of the draft: Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley. It's an epic debate reminiscent of Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant last year, but there's even more at stake for the Bulls. What makes this decision especially intriguing is that Rose and Beasley provide platinum-level solutions to the the Bulls' two biggest needs: competent playmaking at the point and reliable low-post scoring. Well, if you need both, why not take both?

Derrick Rose, Superstar Point Guard

Yes, I know, this sounds like another half-assed idea from some message board usually littered with idiot homers trying to argue how Manu Ginobili is better than Kobe Bryant and other ideas that could only be conceived by 14-year old kids who spend way too much time in their parents' basements trying to break the password on the Net Nanny. And we've all seen Chicago try the Baby Bulls scheme back in 2001 by drafting high schoolers Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry 2nd and 4th, then watched it blow up in their face. But this one can work. There's a chance, not a good one, but a chance that Chicago can get both Rose and Beasley. I'm going to tell you how they can, and then I'm going to tell you why they should.

There is one significant difference between this decision for the top pick, and the Portland Trailblazer's decision last year between Oden and Durant. Whether Portland took Oden or Durant first last year, Seattle would have gladly taken the other second. That's not the case this year. Miami wants Derrick Rose. I couldn't tell you why. Although Rose and Dwyane Wade would form the most athletic backcourt in the league, you're essentially starting two sub-6'4" combo guards with suspect jump shots who both want to drive and are going to be undersized defending the larger 2-guards in the league. I suppose he's still a better choice than taking Beasley and watching Shawn Marion crap his pants realizing he just got stuck with Nash-Stoudemire II, then opting out of his contract, but whatever. That's not Chicago's concern.

Michael Beasley, Scoring Machine

All they need to know is that Miami wants Rose and is threatening to trade the pick if he's taken first.

Now some of you may think that Pat Riley isn't crazy enough to trade the opportunity to draft a top-shelf talent like Michael Beasley. Counterpoint: Yes, he is.

So Chicago tells Miami, "Hey, we're drafting Rose. Suck on that." He's off the board. Riley starts shopping around the pick. Chicago comes back and says, "Well, now that you mention it, we have a few guys available." Honestly, after the season they just had, nobody should be untouchable. This is where it gets tricky. Remember the last few years when Chicago had all that young talent and was constantly in trade rumors for guys like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Pau Gasol? Those days are gone. Now talents like Ben Gordon and Luol Deng have become restricted free agents, while signed veterans like Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni won't get nearly equal value in return after the flop of a season the entire team had last year. Still, while any deal may seem implausible, they are not impossible.

1. The Steve Francis Plan - Larry Hughes, congratulations on spinning 61 productive games into $60 million. You're a champ to underachievers everywhere, and to reward you, you won't ever have to show up to work again. That's right, you and the $38 million left on your contract is being waived. That puts Chicago under the cap. Then trade Tyrus Thomas for Mark Blount's ridiculous contract and the #2 pick. Miami gets a high-risk/high-reward prospect who could potentially fill in for Shawn Marion (hahaha!) if Marion chooses to opt out, and they get rid of a contract they are dying to take off the books (actually not even close to as bad as Hughes's). Chicago gets to team up Derrick Rose with Michael Beasley. Or, if Miami doesn't even care about Thomas, Chicago can waive Chris Duhon and absorb Mark Blount's contract directly for either draft picks or straight cash money, but Duhon deserves better than that.
2. The Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant Plan - Either through the use of sorcery or by slipping crack into Riley's cognac, convince Pat that Kirk Hinrich is the answer to their point guard problems. Trade Hinrich for Blount, Daequan Cook, and the pick. Hinrich is a Base Year Compensation (BYC) player, so then dump Cedric Simmons + cash to the Memphis Grizzlies to make the trade go through. The Grizzlies traded Pau Gasol for five guys from the local YMCA to get his contract off their salary, and their two big men now are the two biggest draft busts of the new century (Hi Kwame and Darko!). They'll take your money and your guy.
   
3. Something Okay for Something Bad - Trade Tyrus Thomas for Marcus Banks and the pick. Thomas is unproven, just like Beasley, but he'll be making less money for less years.
   
4. Pick for Picks - Give Miami your next three picks for their #2 pick this year. I'm a firm believer that smart teams are built through the draft, where talent comes cheap and doesn't tie up the salary cap, but if you're teaming Rose and Beasley with the Bulls' current cast, you got yourself a contender. Probably why this one will never happen.

(Alternately, Miami is trying to throw Dwyane Wade at Chicago for the #1 pick and pair up Rose with Beasley themselves.

Mark Blount, You'd want him off your payroll, too.

I don't see it happening. Wade is a BYC player like Hinrich, but he makes so much more that there isn't a team with enough space under the cap before the draft that can absorb the extra $3-5 million Miami would have to dump. Then again, both Miami and Chicago could just not sign their picks and wait until later in the summer when other teams start freeing up more cap space. By the way, this is going completely off what ESPN Trade Machine is telling me, so blame them if I sound like an idiot right now.)

Whatever Chicago does, it should NOT, under any circumstances, trade Joakim Noah. Do NOT trade Joakim Noah. To be explained later.

So why believe in Rose and Beasley so much? For one, Derrick Rose is a superstar point guard in the making. Playmaking did not seem like a weakness for the Chicago Bulls, what with the Kirk Hinrich and Chris Duhon platoon holding down the 1 spot with no complaints. But last year, though everyone underperformed, both point guards, especially Hinrich, decided to put a postage stamp on the entire season and take a mental vacation. Taking a look at 82games.com, one can easily see that PG was the Bulls' least productive position, and both guard positions put up subpar resistance against the opposition.

Even assuming Hinrich and Duhon just had down years and will return to their previous productivity, Rose is a clear upgrade over both. He has the speed and tenacity of Chris Paul combined with the strength and size of Deron Williams (actually he's 1/2" taller than Williams). If he lives up to that potential, he will be All-NBA one day. Yet if Chicago just drafts him alone, as seems to be the popular choice, it doesn't resolve the main issue they had since they let go of Eddy "The Buffet Destroyer" Curry, which is a complete lack of reliable scoring in the post. Ever since Curry left, the Bulls' Achilles' heel has always been that they were a team that lived and died by the jump shot. When the the defense tightens up, the lanes into the paint clog, and every jumper on the perimeter is contested, teams need that force to score the easy buckets down low. Beasley is that force, plus he adds the elite rebounding (he led the NCAA in rebounding last year) that Curry could only possess if you were bouncing Krispy Kremes off a wall.

Joakim Noah, the key to making it work.

Take a look at the successful teams with top point guards today. They all are paired up with someone who can get it done in the post. Steve Nash has Amare Stoudemire in Phoenix. Tony Parker has Tim Duncan in San Antonio. Deron Williams has Carlos Boozer in Utah. The best example, however, is Chris Paul in New Orleans. He has a post scorer in David West, who can also step out and hit the 22-footer here and there. Paul also has Tyson Chandler, who isn't a great scorer but is an elite rebounder and defender. Beasley is an even better scorer, shooter, and rebounder than West is. Also, like West, he's criticized as being undersized (6'8"-6'9" in shoes) for the position. How will he handle the responsibility of matching up against taller power forwards like Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace? The answer is he won't, and that's why you need 7-footer Joakim Noah, the more energetic and motivated version of Tyson Chandler. Noah has what it takes to be an elite post defender, and he is the key to allowing Beasley to concentrate on dominating on offense without worrying about having enough in the tank to stop the giants of the league on the other end.

Without significant cap room to pursue possible free agents like Elton Brand, Jermaine O'Neal, or Gilbert Arenas, Chicago has to build through the draft. With a nucleus of Rose, Beasley, and Noah all on board, Chicago would have a new generation of Baby Bulls. They are New Orleans East, except younger and with even higher upside. This core, if able to mesh successfully in the next couple years, would contend for the Championship for the next decade.